The benefit of hindsight is 2020. Looking back, this year gave much of the world pause—mostly forced by circumstances. Yet, it has also been a year of vision for some. 

Social impact startup investor David Hamilton Nichols believes that some of tomorrow’s most innovative and successful companies will arise from the cohort of startups founded and/or grown during the current crisis. 

Past economic woes have yielded some of today’s longstanding success stories. The Great Recession saw the building of Airbnb. The Great Depression gave the rise of Disney. 

Mr. Nichols believes there are multiple reasons for this. 

First is the combination of fewer competitors in the landscape and those who are willing to take the risk to start new businesses in seemingly inopportune times being the ones with incessant drive and creative inspiration to be successful. 

Second is that the unmet needs that become apparent during crises and societal shifts are often solved by those businesses. 

Mr. Nichols states that this also applies to already established companies. For example, like Disney’s  Mickey Mouse giving smiles to audiences during the Great Depression, so, too, streaming services such as Netflix, which attained its largest number of subscribers ever in 2020, have reaped rewards by entertaining people during the pandemic. Also, Electronic Arts (incidentally another company founded in an economic downturn) saw increased player engagement as people adjusted their entertainment habits due to social distancing. 

With his logic of fewer competitors during turmoil and newly apparent needs, Mr. Nichols has more than doubled his startup portfolio during 2020, including innovators in e-commerce and logistics.  Examples of these are his late-seed-stage investments in RageOn, an e-commerce platform offering fast,  environmentally friendly print on demand of a variety of products, and Virtual Control, a Hong Kong-based company adding new dimensions to asset inspection and container tracking by bringing big tech to the logistics industry. E-commerce obviously stands to gain from increased shopping from home during COVID and beyond, and many aspects of logistics are overdue for updated technology. 

Mr. Nichols notes that unfortunately small businesses, especially restaurants and shops, have suffered the greatest from the pandemic and that both customers and policymakers need to be mindful of this where possible. However, he also points out that those who can adapt their model may come out stronger in the end and that new ideas and companies will continue to arise and thrive. 

So, May 2021 and beyond benefit from the foresight of those business founders and operators who have started a new course or pivoted during 2020. May we also have the insight to know what changes will help our system survive and grow in the coming decade.