By Maria Williams
Zeus Kerravala, technology analyst, and founder and principal of ZK Research
With artificial intelligence (AI) demonstrating impressive capabilities and creating a wave of change in the technology industry, it’s reasonable to think that AI will change how people work and live. However, that point may be later than sooner, according to leading technology analyst Zeus Kerravala, founder and principal of ZK Research.
According to Kerravala, the CEO of a major networking equipment maker had recently announced that the company has around $1 billion in the pipeline for companies building out their AI infrastructure. Several other major technology companies have made similar pronouncements. However, he also says that investor sentiment has yet to indicate what he calls the “AI bump” to the stock value of companies outside of GUPs and CPUs. This means that the broader tech ecosystem has yet to feel any significant benefit from the massive wave of AI development.
At this point, it means that AI will create a broader rising tide that will lift all boats in different tech sectors outside of silicon, and Kerravala believes that it is just too early in the technology adoption cycle for its effect to be felt on most companies’ revenue.
“There are many companies across multiple industries that will eventually experience the tailwinds from AI. But they haven’t yet because I believe that the tech industry is too concentrated on chips, which is a very narrow view of the world,” Kerravala says.
At this point, customers, investors, and the media haven’t fully grasped the broader implications of AI. Kerravala says that this slows down adoption because AI technology is not an island. In order for AI to be effectively adopted, other technologies need to work together, such as networking, wireless, cloud, and even energy, to name a few. The hyper-focus on processors means that the extent of how AI interacts with other technologies isn’t fully realized.
For example, Kerravala draws attention to the importance of 5G wireless technology for AI. While the relationship between the two technologies isn’t immediately apparent to many, he points out that 5G allows companies to place more data in more places at higher speeds. One technology being tested right now is digital mirrors, where the user can preview how a garment looks on them without actually wearing it, with the AI superimposing the clothes on the user’s reflection. Most of the computing in this use case is done at the edge of the network, and 5G wireless helps facilitate smoother edge computing.
For the benefits of AI to be fully harnessed as soon as possible, it requires ecosystem thinking. However, history shows that building tech ecosystems can be hard, especially with competing business interests in the way. In the early days of mobile phones, cellular companies operated in “walled gardens”, where a phone on one provider did not work on the competing provider’s network. When the mobile operators began working together and implemented interoperability on each other’s networks, that created a rising tide where everybody could now have access to cellular services wherever they went. The Internet went through the same ecosystem evolution, which disrupted the entire tech industry and democratized economic opportunities. AI will have the same impact but on a bigger scale.
While the US has been at the forefront of technology research and development for decades, Kerravala observed that it is somewhat lagging in the area of adoption. The US and European governments have traditionally adopted a laissez-faire approach to technology adoption, letting the market and private sector drive most of it. Being a mature market, legacy systems are hard and costly to replace, further slowing the pace of innovation.
On the other hand, emerging economies in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific have been innovating at a faster rate, due to active support from their governments and the lack of existing tech infrastructure. Kerravala believes that democratic governments can and should take a larger role in driving technological innovation, as they have the resources and capability to coordinate major undertakings, such as the adoption of AI.
“Recently, there was a proposal for a moratorium on AI research until the US government could legislate around it. I couldn’t think of a worse idea than that, as that would lead to the US losing its advantage at the forefront of technology, while other countries move forward with their adoption. Rather, I would like to see governments of all countries play a more active role in fostering innovation for the benefit of their citizens,” Kerravala says.
Published By: Aize Perez
